聯(lián)合國(UN)在10月16日舉行年度“世界糧食日”(World Food Day)慶祝活動，提醒人們關注全球還有8.54億營養(yǎng)不良人口。聯(lián)合國警告，“還有太多人在挨餓”。而這一警告似乎比以往更為焦慮。

    隨著小麥、玉米和大米等主食需求日益上升，推動糧食價格上漲，為挨餓人口尋找糧食正成為一項日益艱巨的任務。這導致所有國家（無論富國還是窮國）都在競相爭奪糧食供應。

    對于那些已經(jīng)在與政治動蕩、干旱或戰(zhàn)爭相抗爭的國家而言，糧食安全并不是一個新問題。但自20世紀70年代初發(fā)生全球糧食短缺以來，這是較為穩(wěn)定的國家首次也在為糧食安全感到擔憂。英國商業(yè)農(nóng)民團體(Commercial Farmers Group)主席亨利•費爾(Henry Fell)表示：“全球局勢正在傳遞這樣的信號：我們正在走出糧食供應豐富期，進入一個糧食供應更為短缺的時期。”

    When the United Nations held its annual World Food Day last week to publicise the plight of the 854m malnourished people around the world, its warning that there “are still too many hungry people” was a little more anxious than usual.

    Finding food to feed the hungry is becoming an increasingly difficult task as growing demand for staples such as wheat, corn and rice brings higher prices. That is leading all nations – rich and poor – to compete for food supplies.

    Food security is not a new concern for countries that have battled political instability, droughts or wars. But for the first time since the early 1970s, when there were global food shortages, it is starting to concern more stable nations as well. “The whole global picture is flagging up signals that we're moving out of a period of abundant food supply into a period in which food is going to be in much shorter supply,” says Henry Fell, chairman of Britain's Commercial Farmers Group.
 
    隨著農(nóng)業(yè)大宗商品價格達到創(chuàng)紀錄高位，食品生產(chǎn)商們也相繼抬高價格。法國奶制品集團達能(Danone)本月就表示將提價10%，成為最新一家反映成本上升嚴峻態(tài)勢的公司。隨著這種現(xiàn)象的出現(xiàn)，世界各國開始質(zhì)疑它們能否養(yǎng)活自己。

    小麥和牛奶價格已飆升至歷史新高，而玉米和大豆的價格也維持在20世紀90年代平均水平之上。大米和咖啡的價格躍升至10年高點，某些國家的肉類價格最近上漲了50%。

    “世界正在逐漸喪失以往用來抵御（市場）嚴重動蕩的緩沖器，”聯(lián)合國糧農(nóng)組織(Food and Agriculture Organisation)糧食貿(mào)易司司長阿普杜勒禮薩•阿巴斯安(Abdolreza Abbassian)表示。“現(xiàn)在有一種恐慌的苗頭。”

    有些糧食價格上漲是由于暫時性問題或動植物疫情所致，如澳大利亞的干旱和中國的豬藍耳病。但隨著中國和印度日益富裕的人口需要更多的蛋白質(zhì)，亞洲存在更為持久的需求增長；生物燃料業(yè)也一樣。這些進展將在中期內(nèi)對價格起到支撐作用。到2010年，生物燃料業(yè)將有望消耗美國玉米產(chǎn)量的30%左右。

    世界糧農(nóng)組織估計，在下一個10年內(nèi)，那些結構性新趨勢將會把農(nóng)業(yè)大宗商品價格從過去10年的平均水平向上推升20%至50%。

    As agricultural commodities trade at record high levels, causing one food manufacturer after another to put up prices – Danone, the French dairy group, this month became the latest to reflect the severity of the cost increases when it said it would increase prices by 10 per cent – countries are starting to question whether they can afford to keep feeding themselves.

    Wheat and milk prices have surged to all-time highs while those for corn and soyabeans stand at well above their 1990s averages. Rice and coffee have jumped to 10-year records and meat prices have risen recently by up to 50 per cent in some countries.

    “The world is gradually losing the buffer that it used to have to protect against big swings [in the market],” says Abdolreza Abbassian, secretary of the grains trading group at the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation. “There is a sense of panic.”

    Some of the price rises are the result of temporary problems, such as drought in Australia, and diseases, such as blue-ear in Chinese pigs. But there is a more permanent increase in demand from Asia, as richer populations in China and India demand more protein, and from the biofuel industry, which is on course to consume about 30 per cent of the US corn crop in 2010 – developments that will underpin prices for the medium term.

The FAO estimates that those structural new trends will help to push the cost of agricultural commodities in the next decade between 20 and 50 per cent above their last 10-year average.